Hi all,
I guess I have no choice but to wade into the thread now...thanks Dave ;) But I have been meaning to get involved, although I am on the road and away from resources to cite. But this will be long enough, so here we go.
First, Kristen is right, we need to separate birding and the observation of migration from what is actually happening (or not). And it's not just fallouts. The lack of westerly and especially northwesterly winds this fall has reduced the concentration of birds at the coast, where most of us live and bird. That's why Monhegan has been so slow, and that's why I have been at Sandy Point so infrequently (when I am in town, anyway).
But this is not necessarily a "bad" thing. Birds flying overhead, unimpeded, without grounds from weather, disorientation in fog and from lights, etc, would be better classified as "good" migration. What's good for birding is often NOT what's good for the birds themselves.
Dave is right, I have had some very good flights at Sandy Point this year. But in the big picture, a good day there is more about weather than it is about population. We can draw as little of a conclusion about populations in a few good days at Sandy Point as a few bad days on Monhegan.
It has not been a "good" fall (I'll limit the conversation to just the current season for now) for observing migrant birds. Just about all of us will agree on that.
But Dave brings up the radar, and he's on the right track. Quantification of migration from analyzing night after night of radar (especially with the new dual-pol NEXRAD images) and acoustic monitoring will give us a much better picture of what is really happening over the course of an entire season. Unfortunately, I am not actively quantifying entire seasons - that's mostly above my pay grade!
Also, I want to urge caution about giving up on this year's migration - it's only late September! While most of our long-distance migrants are on their way to the tropics, short-distance migrants are yet to arriving. And most short-distance migrants are facultative (flexible) in their timing. It's been mild and "nice," and some birds just haven't bothered to head south yet. In other words, there's a lot of migration left to observe and attempt to quantify.
Now here comes the BUT. All of the above should not be interpreted to dismiss the very real, the very apparent, and the very quantifiable declines in many of our birds (especially Neotropical migrants).
Out of all of the comments here, I think Glenn's musing "and we all want to know why" was actually the most concerning to me. We do know why (in no exact order of importance):
1) Climate change (directly and indirectly, especially the change in the timing of seasons which is effecting the phenology of how food sources appear and are timed in relation to the migrants that are timed to arrive to coincide with seasonal abundances, e.g caterpillars on young oak leaves).
2) Habitat loss: breeding grounds, wintering grounds, and everywhere in between.
3) threats during migration (unseasonable severity of storms and changing weather patterns, collisions with lighted structures of all types, etc, etc).
4) outdoor cats (3.8 BILLION birds annually).
5) windows (1 BILLION annually).
The list goes on, and on, and on...
And it's hard not to get depressed and disenchanted, especially in a season with such a poor "observed migration." What keeps me going, is knowing how many simple changes can go such a long way in preserving bird populations.
I'll forgo a comprehensive strategy here (you've tolerated this post long enough), but I will put it bluntly:
If you are reading this today sipping your cheap, sun-grown coffee while looking out a glass window without screens or anti-collision products, and your cat is outside, than I can assure you, we will all continue to observe fewer and fewer migrants each year.
OK, that's enough for now, back to not observing birds inside this Missouri warehouse at a trade show for me.
And here's to some great migration (for birds and birders alike) following the deluge.
Hope that helps, or at least provokes some serious contemplation about how we can all make a difference. Thanks for reading,
Derek
Sent from my iPhone
I think it is important to ask Derek Lovitch about this topic. He repeatedly reported very significant numbers of migrants going past Sandy Point in Yarmouth over a period of several weeks earlier this month. He also has been using radar. I don't know how far back his records go for comparison purposes.
I do know that the warbler numbers on Monhegan Island between Sept 12-26 were very low but it also has never been this balmy during this period in the past 15 years.
Tom Potter from Indiana commented that he has never seen such low numbers in the 41 years he has been going.
This September in two weeks I logged only 80 species. Usually I reach 100 or more in the two weeks. Important to ask the younger (better) birders and trip leaders for their impressions this fall. I do know my impressions were not dissimilar from those of many other birders on the island during this specific period of the migration.
As an indication, I saw only one Black-throated Green and one Black-throated Blue in two weeks. Also I had roughly ten sightings of Red-eyed Vireos as opposed to the expected hundreds of sightings over two weeks in past years.
Hi All;
Kristen has a really good point. Perhaps we're looking at the lack of numbers from our own perspective too much. However, it doesn't take a professional bird counter to know which way the wind is blowing, to coin a phrase. Numbers are down, and we'd all like to know why.
Glenn Jenks
Camden, ME
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